Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but both parties has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
